The FAA, Transport Canada, and the UK CAA jointly developed a Risk and Benefit Cost Model to assess the likely number of U.S.-registered freighter fire accidents, and the Benefit Cost Ratio associated with seven mitigation strategies identified by the FAA. This report is structured to explain the data used by the Model Version 5, its algorithms, and the way in which the model may be used.
Model Version 5 is a development of earlier models. Extra functionality has been added and data are now appropriate to the U.S.-registered freighter fleet in 2011.
The model addresses the potential fire threat from all forms of cargo, including that from the bulk shipment of lithium batteries (primary and secondary) since it is considered they are likely to have had a contribution to two of the five freighter fire accidents that have occurred on U.S.-registered airplanes. The model displays the number of accidents through to 2021, and costs, benefits and the benefit cost ratios through to 2026.
The model predicts that the average number of total accidents likely to occur during the next 10 years, 2012 to 2021, if no mitigation action is taken, is approximately 6, ranging from 2 to 12, at 95% percent confidence interval. If no mitigation action is taken, accident costs are likely to average approximately $50 million (U.S.) per annum over the period 2012 to 2026. The primary contribution to freighter fire accident costs is the value of the airplane – with values of approximately 90% of the total accident cost for the larger freighter airplanes. However, the model predictions of accident costs are based on the assumption that the composition of the U.S.-registered freighter fleet will be largely unchanged from 2011 through 2026 in terms of the size and value of airplanes.
The costs of implementing the proposed mitigation strategies are currently not known to a sufficient level of accuracy to make accurate determinations of benefit cost ratios. However, the model has been constructed to allow user inputs of costs once they become available.